我国农业农村现代化发展水平动态演进及比较

Dynamic Evolution and Comparative Analysis of Development Level of China’s Agricultural and Rural Modernization

实施乡村振兴战略是我国建设现代化强国的重要举措。文章根据乡村振兴战略产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕的总要求构建农业农村现代化评价指标体系,采用动态因子分析法对我国30个省份2013-2016年农业农村现代化发展水平及其变化趋势进行测度,实现动态分析体系下的横向比较和纵向追踪相结合。研究表明:(1)从横向比较而言,通过聚类分析依据动态因子分析法测算的平均综合得分将中国30个区域农业农村现代化发展水平划分为优秀、良好、一般和较差4个层级,我国农业农村现代化发展水平总体呈现自东向西降低的分布格局。(2)从纵向时间动态变化趋势来看,我国农业农村现代化发展水平变化趋势主要表现为上升型、下降型和波动型3种变化类型,划分为良好及以上水平层级的区域整体呈现恢复上升趋势,划分为一般及以下水平层级的区域整体呈现波动下降趋势。

Implementing the strategy of rural revitalization is an important measure to build China into a powerful modern country. According to the general requirements of thriving strategic industries, livable ecology, civilized local customs, effective governance and rich life, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of agricultural and rural modernization. The paper also adopts the dynamic factor analysis method to measure the development level and change trend of agricultural and rural modernization in 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2016, so as to realize the combination of horizontal comparison and vertical tracking under the dynamic analysis system. The research shows that 1) as for horizontal comparison, according to the average comprehensive score calculated by the dynamic factor analysis method, the agricultural and rural modernization development level of 30 regions in China is divided into four levels: excellent, good, average and poor, and the development level of China’s agricultural and rural modernization generally presents a distribution pattern of decrease from east to west;2) from the perspective of dynamic change trend of longitudinal time, the level of agricultural and rural modernization development is mainly shown as three types of change: upward, downward and fluctuation;the regions classified as good and above levels show an overall trend of recovery and increase, while those classified as average and below levels show a trend of fluctuation and decrease.