长株潭城市群雾霾农业损失引起的间接经济损失评估

Indirect Economic Loss Caused by Agricultural Loss Induced from Haze in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration: An Estimation

为了给经济系统各部门雾霾治理提供依据,基于湖南省投入产出表和长株潭城市群相关数据,采用产业交叉熵方法计算长株潭城市群投入产出关联系数,构建投入产出局部闭模型,分别从需求和供给侧估算长株潭城市群雾霾农业及其他各部门经济损失。研究发现:(1)间接经济损失通过供给侧的前向关联机制与需求侧的后向关联机制产生,它反映了直接经济损失和部门之间的关联程度;(2)雾霾灾害导致的部门间接经济损失都大于直接经济损失;供给侧的经济损失总是大于需求侧的经济损失。

To provide a basis for haze control of various sectors in the economic system,based on the inputoutput table of Hunan and related data of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(CZT)urban agglomeration,we calculated the input-output correlation coefficient of CZT by the method of industry cross entropy,and constructed the partial closed input-output model,and estimated the economic losses of agriculture and other sectors caused by haze in CZT from demand side and supply side,respectively.The results showed that:(1)the indirect economic losses were generated through the forward or backward linkage mechanism from the supply side and the demand side,respectively,reflecting the degree of linkage between direct economic losses and sectors;(2)the indirect economic loss caused by haze disaster was greater than the direct economic loss;the economic loss triggered from the supply side was always greater than that from the demand side.