中国对外资产价值变化的轨迹与原因——基于国际投资头寸表的视角

Valuation Changes of Chinese External Assets: A Perspective of International Investment Position

随着中国对外资产规模不断增加,资产存量价值变动的重要性日益凸显。通过金融账户而非经常账户出发来对中国对外资产价值变动情况进行考察,不仅可以避免不必要的误差,也可以在各子项下开展细化分析。总体而言,在2009-2017年期间,中国对外资产获得了轻微的估值收益。其中对离岸金融中心“直接投资”的估值收益较高。但我们判断这并非由汇率因素和价格因素所致。将中国大陆对离岸金融中心的直接投资数据剔除后,中国对外资产的估值收益为负。具体来看,中国的外汇储备虽未获得良好的估值收益,但也并未遭受损失;证券投资中的股权投资获得较好的估值收益,但由于占比过低,因而影响有限;中国对外债权投资和“其他投资”估值损失较高,通过与其他国家进行横向对比,“数量的其他变化”应是致其流失的重要原因。

The scale of China’s external assets has risen continually and their valuation changes have become increasingly important.Calculation of the changing valuations based on the financial account,compared with that based on the current account,will avoid producing unnecessary errors and facilitate more detailed analysis.In general,China gained slightly from its external assets during 2009-2017.Its gains were mainly from“direct investment”in offshore financial centers,but we hold that the gains were not from exchange rate or price changes.If we removed the data of Chinese FDI to Hong Kong,Cayman Is.and British Virgin Is.,however,the gain would be negative.China did not achieve high returns from its foreign exchange reserves,although it did not suffer valuation losses.The country achieved high returns from its equity investment under the portfolio investment category,but its weight was very low and therefore did not contribute much to overall gains.The country suffered quite some losses from its debt investment and“currency and deposit”.Compared with other countries,China’s overall asset valuation reduction was mainly from losses in the“other changes in volume”category.