基于GIS的沧州市暴雨气象灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Meteorological Disasters in Cangzhou City Based on GIS

基于自然灾害风险评估理论,建立以致灾因素危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、灾害承受体脆弱性和防灾抗灾能力为主的评估体系,选取河北省2010-2018年的暴雨频次、暴雨强度、自然环境和社会经济等指标,利用GIS分析技术和加权综合评价方法,对沧州市暴雨气象灾害风险进行了评估。结果表明,大面积的暴雨灾害高风险区主要分布在东部的海兴、黄骅和盐山地区,该地区暴雨发生危险性和环境敏感性较大;中南部地势低且平坦,环境敏感性和承载体易损性相对低,导致暴雨灾害发生的风险较低;沧州市区的承载体易损性特别高,市区西部的防灾减灾能力也较差,导致沧州市区西部的暴雨灾害发生风险高于东部。

Based on the natural disaster risk assessment theory,rain frequencies and intensities,natural and socioeconomic data from 2010 to 2018,the index system for evaluating the rainstorm and flood meteorological disasters in Cangzhou City was established.Risk of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-forming environment,vulnerability of disaster-bearing body,and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation were calculated and the rainstorm and flood risk was zoned using GIS analysis technology and weighted comprehensive evaluation method.Results showed that the higher risk was mainly distributed in the eastern region especially in Haixing,Huanghua and Yanshan regions.That was attributed to the high risk of heavy rain meteorological disasters and environmental sensitivity,and weak ability of disaster prevention and mitigation.The lower risk was mainly distributed in the central-south region where environmental sensitivity and vulnerability of disaster-bearing body were lower.Since vulnerability of disaster-bearing body was very high in Cangzhou downtown area,the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in western downtown area was lower than the eastern area,leading that the risk in western downtown area was higher than in eastern downtown area.