在华B省非法外籍劳工人口规模的测算——一项移民社会学的本土化尝试

Estimation of the Population Size of Undocumented Guest Worker in B Province of China: A Localization Attempt of Immigration Sociology

非法外籍劳工数量是一国政府调控经济、促进劳动力市场发育的重要研判信息。但该群体往往迁移渠道多样且隐蔽,因此对其总体的估计极具挑战性。本研究使用了三种政府可获得数据来源,并分别使用借助捕获概率的"乘数法"、"捕获-再捕获"和主观估计并加权调整法,获得了较为一致的人口规模估计。本文所提出的在华非法外籍劳工的估计方法稳健可靠,适合我国作为非传统移民国家在统计数据有限的情况下进行非法移民总体的估计。

The population size of undocumented guest workers is an important research and analysis information for a government to regulate the economy and promote the development of the labor market.However,the migration channels of this group are often diverse and concealed,so the estimation of their population size is extremely challenging.This study used three government-available data and used a“multiplier method(with the probability of apprehension)”,“capture-recapture”and subjective estimation combined with a weighted adjustment method to acquire a relatively unified population size.The estima-tion method of this study is robust and reliable,and is suitable for non-traditional immigration countries to estimate the population size of undocumented guest workers with limited statistical data.