基于CLUE-S模型模拟胡杨春尺蠖的发生蔓延过程

Simulation of the propagation process of mulberry looper Apocheima cinerarius based on the CLUE-S model

为了解胡杨春尺蠖Apocheima cinerarius的发生蔓延过程,以新疆叶尔羌河流域中下游巴楚县夏河林区胡杨林分布区为研究区,利用ENVI+IDL软件提取2001-2016年的MODIS 13Q1数据得到16年的胡杨春尺蠖发生区域,借助CLUE-S模型对其发生分布规律进行分析和预测,反演并验证2006年该虫的发生分布范围,进而预测2020年胡杨春尺蠖各发生等级的空间分布。结果显示,2001-2016年,胡杨春尺蠖的发生范围在逐步扩散,且扩散较为明显;该虫的发生面积在逐步增加,极重度发生、重度发生、中度发生、轻度发生的面积占比分别提高了4.98、11.36、19.52、24.62个百分点,而无虫害面积占比则下降了59.48个百分点,降至37.18%;借助CLUE-S模型反演并验证2006年胡杨春尺蠖发生分布范围,模拟结果正确率达88.85%,一致性检验Kappa系数达0.86;2020年该虫的空间分布模拟预测结果显示,该年胡杨春尺蠖各发生等级的分布空间格局变化相对明显,各程度虫害发生面积均不断增加,无虫害面积占比降至30.57%。表明胡杨春尺蠖为害形势非常严峻,必须针对极重度发生区域进行专项治理,运用CLUE-S模型反演虫害发生区域是一种能准确预测虫害发生的高效方法,模拟结果可指导实施飞防作业。

In order to understand the spread process of mulberry looper Apocheima cinerarius, the ENVI+IDL was used to extract the MODIS 13Q1 data to obtain A. cinerarius occurrence area in the distribution area of P. euphratica forest in Xiahe of Bachu County in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2016. The CLUE-S model was used to analyze and predict the distribution of pest occurrence, inversion and verification of the distribution of pests in 2006, and then predict the spatial distribution of various grades in 2020. The results showed that the occurrence range of A. cinerarius was gradually spread from 2001 to2016, and the spread was obvious. The area of insect pests increased gradually, and the proportion of extremely severe, severe, moderate, and mild occurrence increased by 4.98, 11.36, 19.52, and 24.62 percentage points, respectively, while the proportion of pest-free area decreased by 59.48 percentage points to37.18%. Through inversion and verification of the distribution of A. cinerarius in 2006 by using the CLUE-S model, the correct rate of simulation results reached 88.85%, and the Kappa coefficient of consistency test was 0.86. The spatial distribution simulation of pests in 2020 showed that the spatial pattern of the distribution of various grades of A. cinerarius was relatively obvious;the area of pests increased at various levels, and the proportion of pest-free area dropped to 30.57%. It indicated that the occurrence of A. cinerarius was very serious. It is necessary to give special treatment to the extremely serious regions. The use of CLUE-S model to invert the pest occurrence area is an efficient method to accurately predict the occurrence of pests. The simulation results can guide the implementation of aerial control operations.