产业结构服务化、生产效率与“结构性减速”——基于新结构经济学视角

Industrial Structure Service, Production Efficiency and “Structural Slowdown”: From the Perspective of New Structural Economics

针对我国产业结构服务化引起的“结构性减速”现象,本文根据新结构经济学“禀赋结构-产业结构-生产效率-经济增长”的逻辑,从结构变迁的循环累积、禀赋结构需求和比较优势三个角度分析其理论机理,并从软硬基础设施、生产性服务业与人力资本角度阐释对产业结构服务化效率损失的补偿机理。随后利用2003-2016年275个地级市的面板数据,通过联立方程模型与门槛回归对上述结论检验,结果发现,产业结构从工业化到服务化的变迁过程对生产效率呈现先促进后抑制的“倒U型”影响,并通过生产效率使经济呈现从“结构性加速”到“结构性减速”的变化趋势;整体上生产性服务业不能对产业结构服务化造成的效率损失进行补偿,但对省会与副省级城市的效率补偿有一定积极作用;硬基础设施、市场化和政府干预则可以在不同程度上补偿产业结构服务化过程中的效率损失,但人力资本不能对效率损失进行补偿。上述结论具有政策含义:在我国工业部门劳动生产率仍然较低的情况下,应坚持实施“工业化”战略,由提高工业产值转变为提高工业生产率,以补偿产业结构服务化造成的生产效率损失。另外,服务业内部结构应不断向生产性服务业倾斜。

According to the logic of “endowment structure-industrial structure-production efficiency-economic growth” in new structural economics, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of “structural slowdown” caused by the service of industrial structure in China from three aspects: the cyclic accumulation of structural change, the demand of endowment structure and comparative advantage, and explains the compensation mechanism for the loss of service efficiency of industrial structure from the perspectives of soft and hard infrastructure, productive service industry and human capital.Then, the panel data of 275 prefecture level cities from 2003 to 2016 are used to test the above conclusions through simultaneous equation model and threshold regression.The results show that the change process of industrial structure from industrialization to service presents a “inverted U-shaped” effect on production efficiency, which first promotes and then suppresses, and through production efficiency, the economy presents a change trend from “structural acceleration” to “structural deceleration”;on the whole, productive service industry cannot compensate for the efficiency loss caused by industrial structure service, but it has a positive effect on the efficiency compensation of provincial capital and the sub provincial capital city;hard infrastructure, marketization and government intervention can compensate for the loss of efficiency in the process of industrial structure service to varying degrees, but human capital cannot compensate for the loss of efficiency.The above conclusions have policy implications: in the case of low labor productivity in China′s industrial sector, we should adhere to the implementation of the “industrialization” strategy, change from increasing industrial output value to increasing industrial productivity, in order to compensate for the loss of production efficiency caused by the service-oriented industrial structure. In addition, the internal structure of service industry should be inclined to productive service industry.