融合多源先验信息的舰船备件可靠性评估

Reliability estimation for warship spares by fusing multi-source prior information

舰船工作环境常导致备件的实际可靠性规律与设计参数不一致。在实际使用消耗量较小的条件下,全面分析备件可靠性信息来源,通过定义似然权重系数,融合多源先验信息,建立指数型备件可靠性的贝叶斯评估方法。最后,通过仿真分析验证方法的合理性。结果表明,所提出的基于似然权重的先验信息融合方法可以较好地融合不同信息源的可靠性信息,估计方法具有较好的稳定性。

The reliability of warship spares may be different from the factorial designing parameters, due to the working environment of warships. With small actual consumption data, the reliability sources of the spares are analyzed, and by defining the likelihood weighting coefficient, a Bayesian estimate for the reliability of exponential spares is established via fusing multi-source prior information. The validity of the method is tested by simulation, and the results show that the information fusing method could properly fuse information and the estimate possesses acceptable precision.