非洲猪瘟疫情对中国生猪产业的影响与展望

Impact of African Swine Fever Epidemic on China’s Hog Industry and Its Prospect

自2018年8月中国暴发非洲猪瘟疫情以来,其生猪产业受到较大冲击,疫情已对中国生猪产业健康发展、经济平稳运行构成了一定威胁。通过分析非洲猪瘟疫情对中国生猪产业的不利影响,对中国猪瘟疫情现状与影响因素进行分析,认为全国生猪出栏量将会大幅走低,生猪价格预计仍将高位运行,2020年生猪出栏预计继续小幅下滑。为了应对非洲猪瘟疫情冲击、促进生猪生产加快恢复发展,保障猪肉市场供给,建议从完善防控机制、稳定生猪生产以及加快产业调整升级方面入手,多措并举,一定程度上将会缓解猪肉产量的短缺程度。

Since the outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018,China's pig industry has suffered a great impact,which has posed a certain threat to the healthy development of China's pig industry and the steady economic operation.Based on the analysis of the adverse impact of African swine fever on China's pig industry,this paper analyzed the status quo and impact of China's pig fever.It was forecasted that the national pig market would show a significant decline,and the pig price was expected to remain high,and the pig market would continue to decline slightly in 2020.In order to cope with the impact of African swine fever,accelerate the recovery of pig production and ensure pork market supply,some related countermeasures were put forward from the aspects of improving the prevention and control mechanism,stabilizing pig production and accelerating industrial adjustment and upgrading,and with the combination of these measures,the degree of pork production shortage would be alleviated to some extent.