西部大开发政策对中国经济的影响——基于Bayes动态隐变量模型的中国地区经济联动性研究

Macroeconomic effects of China’s Western Development Program:Analysis of co-movements among different regions based on the Bayesian dynamic latent factor model

为了考察全国性整体经济波动和地区性的经济波动对各地经济发展的不同贡献,该文基于中国地区化经济发展不平衡的现状,将Bayes动态隐变量模型引入中国宏观经济的研究。通过从可观测到的宏观经济变量中识别出隐含经济变量,该文将中国宏观经济的整体波动分解为3个部分:全国因子、地区因子和各经济变量独有的波动项。通过对中国经济在1980-2015年的变动历史的分析,发现地区的产出和投资主要受全国因子波动的影响,而地区消费的波动主要受地区因子的影响。另外,通过对中国"西部大开发"战略实施前后经济变动的分析,发现该战略提高了全国因子对西部地区的影响,特别是对投资影响最大。

The influence of state-level and regional economic fluctuations on regional economic growth was analyzed using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model based on the different economic development rates in different regions of China. This method decomposes the fluctuations of the macroeconomic aggregates in China into the state factor,the regional factors and the idiosyncratic errors specific to each aggregate variable.The dynamics of the macroeconomic variables were analyzed from 1980 to 2015 to show that the regional output and investment are mainly influenced by the state factor,while regional consumption is mainly influenced by the regional factor. Furthermore, the study finds that after implementation of China’s Western Development Program,the state factor has more significant influence on the fluctuations of all the economic variables in the western region with the greatest influence on investment.