中国OFDI动因演变、多元特征与潜在挑战

Motivation Evolution, Multiple Characteristics and Potential Challenges of Chinese OFDI

本文通过梳理新中国成立70年来对外直接投资动因变迁的历史逻辑后发现,投资动因的变迁深刻影响着投资区位与行业的变迁,并演化形成了当今多元化的中国对外投资特征。将当前中国对外直接投资多元特征与国内外宏观环境相结合,剖析了中国对外直接投资目前所面临的潜在挑战,包括在全球价值链地位跃迁中遭遇瓶颈制约、出现对外区位失衡与对内发展失衡、制造业对外投资“空心化”趋向逐渐显现、“一带一路”区域对外投资面临多重风险且投资收益亟待提升、国际产能合作有效路径尚需进一步破解、资本外逃与汇率波动在一定程度影响投资信心六个方面,并相应提出了针对性的对策建议。

Through combing the historical logic of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)in the past seven decades since the founding of New China,this article found that the change of investment motivation has a profound impact on the changes of investment location and industry,and evolved into the diversified characteristics of China's OFDI today.This paper analyzes the potential challenges faced by China's OFDI by combining its multiple characteristics with the macro environment at home and abroad which include total six areas such as bottlenecks in the transition of global value chain status,the emergence of external location imbalances and internal development imbalances,the“hollowing out”trend of manufacturing OFDI,the Belt and Road region's OFDI face multiple risks and investment returns urgently need to be improved,the effective path of international production capacity cooperation needs to be further solved,capital flight and exchange rate fluctuations affect investment confidence to a certain extent,and corresponding countermeasures are proposed.