效果推理与因果推理：哪种决策逻辑更有效？——一项基于Meta分析的研究

Effectuation and Causation: Which Decision Making Logic is more ’Effective’? A Meta-Analysis of the Relationship between Decision Making Logic and Firm Performance

效果推理和因果推理都是重要的决策思考方式,而综合比较两者对企业绩效的影响有助于深化对效果推理理论的理解。基于国内外40项实证研究的41个独立样本,运用Meta分析方法定量分析了效果推理、因果推理与企业绩效的关系,并对其影响因素进行探索。研究结果表明,两种决策逻辑与企业绩效均呈显著的正相关关系,且影响效应程度相似。但两者作用的具体情境不同:相比发达市场情境,效果推理在新兴市场情境下更有效;研究结果并不支持在发达市场情境下因果推理更有效。通过Meta回归分析,还发现了人力资本、决策团队规模因素对决策逻辑和企业绩效之间关系具有显著影响。

Effectuation and causation are both important decision-making logics, and comparing their impacts on firm performance can contribute to our understanding of effectuation theory. Based on 40 primary studies and41 independent samples, this paper conduct a meta-analysis of the relationship between two decision making logics(effectuation and causation) and firm performance. The results show that, both decision making logics are positively related to firm performance, and have similar effect size. The positive relationship between effectuation and firm performance is stronger in emerging markets than in developed market. But this paper does do not find evidence that the positive relationship between causation and firm performance is stronger in developed market than in emerging markets. Finally, The omitted variable bias is examined and finding that decisionmaking team size and human capital have significant effects on the relationship.