新时代我国体育产业结构优化效益的VAR模型分析

Analysis of VAR model for optimizing the benefits of the structure of China’s sports industry in the new era

运用文献资料、数理统计、VAR模型等方法,基于2006年至2016年体育产业发展统计指标,通过协整检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等对我国体育产业结构优化效益进行实证分析。研究发现:1)经过十年高速发展,体育产业结构已发生显著变迁(X^2=51.815,P<0.01),正逐步形成以"竞赛表演和健身休闲"为驱动,以"体育用品业"为保障,"体育场馆、体育培训、体育中介、体育传媒"等业态协调快速发展的整体格局;2)体育产业结构合理化、体育产业结构高级化与体育产业增长之间存在长期均衡关系,VAR模型的拟合指数达到0.880290~0.991465;协整模型①显示,体育产业结构合理化、体育产业结构高级化与体育产业增长等变量之间呈正相关关系,即体育产业结构合理化对于体育产业增加值的长期弹性系数为2.813567,即体育产业结构合理化变动1%,体育产业增加值将同向变动2.813567%;体育产业结构高级化的长期弹性系数为0.482439,即体育产业结构高级化增加1%,体育产业增加值将增加0.482439%。协整模型②显示,体育产业高级化能够独立地对体育产业产业增长发挥作用(长期弹性系数为2.123197),但是会对体育产业结构合理化造成负面效应(长期弹性系数为-0.926097);3)脉冲响应与方差分解显示,体育产业结构优化内生变量之间的相互作用具有阶段性与相对性特征。建议:提升规模效益,夯实体育产业结构优化基础;审视脉冲响应,区分体育产业结构优化内生变量阶段性特征;权衡方差分解,辨析体育产业结构优化内生变量相对性特征;制定保障机制,完善体育产业发展政策法规。

With the methods of literature, mathematical statistics and VAR model, and based on the statistical data of national economy and sports industry development from 2006 to 2016,it analyzed the structure of China’s sports industry. It has been shown that after ten years of rapid development,the structure of sports industry has undergone significant changes( X^2= 51.815,P<0.01),and the overall pattern of coordinated and rapid development of sports venues,sports training,sports intermediary and sports media has been gradually formed,driven by " competition performance and fitness and leisure" and supported by " sports supplies industry".There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the rationalization of sports industrial structure,the upgrading of sports industrial structure and the growth of sports industry. The fitting index of VAR model reaches 0. 880290-0.991465.The co-integration model(1),There is a positive correlation between the rationalization of sports industry structure,the high-level structure of sports industry and the growth of sports industry. In other words,the long-term elasticity coefficient of the rationalization of sports industry structure for the added value of sports industry is 2.813567. In other words,the rationalization of sports industry structure is 1%.The long-term elasticity coefficient of high-level sports industry structure is 0.482439,that is,if the high-level sports industry structure increases by 1%,the added value of sports industry will increase by 0.482439%.According to the co-integration model(2),it shows that the high-level sports industry can play an independent role in the growth of the sports industry( long-term elasticity coefficient is 2.123197),but it will have a negative effect on the rationalization of the sports industry structure( long-term elasticity coefficient is -0.926097). Impulse response and variance decomposition show that the interaction between endogenous variables in the optimization of sports industry structure has the characteristics of stage and relativity.It is suggested to improve the scale benefit and consolidate the foundation of sports industry structure optimization.To examine the impulse response and distinguish the stage characteristics of endogenous variables in the optimization of sports industry structure;Balance variance decomposition and differentiate the relativity characteristics of endogenous variables in the optimization of sports industry structure;We will work out a guarantee mechanism and improve policies and regulations on the development of the sports industry.