地方政府行为与双重人口城镇化——基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量分析

Local Government Behavior and Dual Population Urbanization:An Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

中国人口城镇化存在常住人口城镇化率高于户籍人口城镇化率的双重人口城镇化背离现象。这表面上是由于人口统计制度和户籍制度所造成的一种统计现象,其背后则有地方政府行为的内在逻辑必然性。在纵向央地财政分权和横向府际竞争的关系格局下,地方政府为增长而竞争,为晋升而竞争,过多关注经济绩效而忽视了公共服务,导致户籍人口城镇化滞后于常住人口城镇化。基于空间面板计量模型的实证分析表明,财政分权、府际竞争和公共服务负担显著加剧了户籍人口城镇化与常住人口城镇化的背离程度。

There is a dual population urbanization deviation phenomenon that the urbanization rate of permanent residents population is higher than the urbanization rate of household registered population in China. This is ostensibly a statistical phenomenon caused by the demographic system and the household registration system. In reality, there is the inherent logical necessity of local government behavior. Under the relationship between vertical fiscal decentralization and horizontal intergovernmental competition, local governments compete for growth and promotion, pay too much attention to economic performance and neglect public services, resulting in the urbanization of household registered population lagging behind the urbanization of permanent residents population. The empirical analysis based on the spatial panel econometric model shows that fiscal decentralization, intergovernmental competition and public service burden significantly aggravate the deviation between the urbanization of household registered population and the urbanization of permanent residents population.