长江经济带农业碳排放的EKC检验及影响因素研究

EKC test of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and analysis of the affecting factors

基于2001-2017年长江经济带11省市农业相关统计数据,采用碳排系数法对农业碳排放进行测算,并对其EKC检验,运用LMDI模型分析其主要影响因素。研究结果表明:长江经济带农业碳排放与农民人均收入之间呈现"倒U型"EKC曲线关系,拐点出现在2014年左右;农业生产效率是该区域农业碳排放增加的最主要抑制因素;农业生产结构整体上对农业碳排放增加起到促进作用;农业经济水平是农业碳排放增加的最主要驱动因素;农业劳动力规模总体上保持减排效应。针对上述研究结论,对长江经济带农业低碳绿色发展提出了几点政策建议:努力提升农业生产效率;不断优化农业生产结构;积极推动农业劳动力向第二三产业转移;建立健全农业碳减排监管机制。

Based on the agricultural statistics of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2001 to 2017, the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions, and its EKC test is carried out, and the main influencing factors are analyzed by LMDI model. The results show that the typical KEC curve of agricultural carbon emissions and farmers’ income in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is inverted U-shaped, and the inflection point appears around 2014. Agricultural production efficiency is the main restraining factor for the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in the region. Agricultural production structure as a whole promotes the increase of agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural economic level is the main driving force for the increase of agricultural carbon emissions. The scale of agricultural labor force keeps emission reduction effect on the whole. In view of the above research conclusions, some policy suggestions are put forward for the low-carbon and green development of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, striving to improve the efficiency of agricultural production;constantly optimizing the agricultural production structure, actively promoting the transfer of agricultural labor force to secondary and tertiary industries, and establishing and improving the regulatory mechanism of agricultural carbon emissions.