基于修正A值法评估率水流域大气环境容量及其敏感性分析

Using the Corrected A-value Method to Assess the Atmospheric Environmental Capacity of the Shuaishui River Basin and Its Sensitivity Analysis

修正A值法是大气环境容量评估的主要方法之一,主要基于经验性公式,参数取值主观性较大,已有研究并未能系统分析参数取值对基于修正A值法的大气环境容量核算结果的影响.本文基于修正A值法评估率水流域的大气环境容量,并对修正A值法的主要参数(降水量、大气稳定度、风速和干沉积速率)在±30%范围内进行调整,系统分析主要大气污染物(SO2、NO2、PM10和PM2.5)的环境容量对各参数变化的敏感性.研究结果表明:(1)在现阶段条件下,率水流域内SO2、NO2、PM10和PM2.5的允许排放量分别为11.8×10^4 t/a、5.0×10^4 t/a、10.1×10^4 t/a和2.2×10^4 t/a;(2)4种主要污染物的大气环境容量敏感性分析结果一致,风速对环境容量的影响最大,各污染物的环境容量变化范围为-50%~70%;大气稳定度的影响次之,各污染物的环境容量变化范围为-1%~20%;干沉积速率和降水量的影响甚微,大气环境容量变化范围分别为±2%和±0.1%.

The corrected A-value method is one of the main methods for atmospheric environmental capacity assessment.Because the corrected A-value method is mainly based on empirical equations,determination of its parameter values has been rather subjective.However,previous studies has yet systematically analyzed the impacts of parameter values on the method’s atmospheric environment capacity assessment results.In this study,the corrected A-value method is used to assess the atmospheric environment capacity of the Shuaishui River Basin.In addition,this paper systematically analyzes the sensitivity of the environmental capacity of major atmospheric pollutants(SO2,NO2,PM10,and PM2.5)to the main parameters(precipitation,atmospheric stability,wind speed,and dry deposition rate)of the corrected A-value method by adjusting their values within a range of±30%.Study results have shown that:(1)At present,the allowed emissions of SO2,NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 in the Shuaishui River Basin are 11.8×10^4 t/a,5.0×10^4 t/a,10.1×10^4 t/a and 2.2×10^4 t/a,respectively.(2)The results of atmospheric environmental capacity sensitivity analysis of the four main pollutants are consistent.Wind speed has the largest impact on the environmental capacity,causing it to vary between-50%and 70%for all four pollutants;atmospheric stability comes next,causing the environmental capacity to vary between-1%and 20%;the impacts of dry deposition rate and precipitation are minimal,causing the atmospheric environmental capacity to vary within±2%and±0.1%,respectively.