暴力恐怖主义犯罪的生成与本土治理定量研究 基于“三股势力”理论框架的通径分析

Quantitative Research on the Generation and Local Governance of Violent Terrorist Crime Path Analysis Based on Theoretical Framework of “Three Evil Forces”

基于新疆概率样本的通径分析表明,经济状况、就业就学、家庭生活、民族交往、干群关系、宗教文化等大量犯罪以外的因素,对新疆地区分裂、极端、暴恐倾向的滋生具有显著促成作用,故必须超越以犯罪打击及治安防控为核心手段的通常应对思路,紧紧围绕民族分裂与宗教极端这两个关键点展开系统性的社会治理.伊斯兰极端主义的治理途径不是“去伊斯兰化”,而是通过对伊斯兰教义的时代解读和“中国解读”解构极端思想,积极推动伊斯兰教的时代化与中国化,促成维吾尔穆斯林的现代化与世俗化.反恐、防恐、治恐的对策、手段和措施,都应采取科学的经验方法并在中国本土情景中得到检验;同时应遵循理性、科学、适度、法治、实效的原则,既反对法教条主义,也反对法虚无主义.解决中国现阶段暴恐问题的根本路径是促进新疆与中东部地区,南疆与北疆,维吾尔族与我国主体民族的平衡发展和充分发展.

The path analysis based on the probabilistic samples in Xinjiang demonstrates that numerous factors besides crime including economic conditions,employment and schooling,family life,ethnic communication,relationships between cadres and the masses,and religious culture contribute significantly to the generation of the splittism,extremist and violent terrorism tendencies in Xinjiang.Therefore,systematical social governance shall center around the two key cruxes:ethnic splittism and religious extremism,which is beyond the usual governing way considering criminal crackdown and the prevention and control of public order as main measures.The governance approach of Islamic extremism is not"de-Islamization",but through the modernized interpretation and the"China's interpretation"of Islamic doctrine to deconstruct extremist ideology,promoting the modernization and Chinization of Islam and the modernization and secularization of the Uyghur Muslims.The countermeasures,means and measures of against,preventing and fighting terrorism should be tested in the Chinese domestic context with scientific empirical methods,adhering to principles of reason,science,moderation,rule of law and effectiveness and opposing both law dogmatism and law nihilism.The fundamental path of resolving the terrorism issue at the current stage in China is to promote balanced and full development between Xinjiang and mideastern region,southern Xinjiang and northern Xinjiang,and Uyghur and the dominant nationality of our country.