长江下游稻米价格非对称传导与市场整合（1929-1935)

Price Asymmetric Transmission and Market Integration of Rice in Lower Yangtze River(1929-1935)

文章基于1929-1935年无锡和上海稻米价格月度数据,采用协整检验和非对称误差修正模型,考察长江下游稻米集散市场和消费市场价格非对称传导问题。实证结果显示,无锡粳米价格和上海粳米价格传导具有非对称特征,上海经销商在无锡粳米价上涨时的价格调整比下跌时更加积极,而无锡粳米加工厂商及经销商在上海粳米价格下跌时受到的冲击比价格上涨时更剧烈;无锡粳稻价格对无锡粳米价格传导同样呈非对称特征,表现为无锡市场上粳米价格对粳稻价格负向波动的反应更加剧烈,这意味着粳米加工厂商和经销商无法获取上游产品价格下跌带来的福利。市场的不完全竞争和进口贸易是影响稻米横向关联市场价格和纵向关联市场价格传导轨迹的重要因素。在价格非对称传导情形下,稻米集散市场利润分配及市场纵向整合发生了深刻变化。

This paper is based on the Wuxi and Shanghai monthly rice price data from 1929 to 1935,which adopts the co-integration test and the asymmetric error correction model to investigate the lower reaches of the Yangtze River’s terminal markets and consumption market price asymmetric transmission problems.The experimental results show that Wuxi and Shanghai japonica rice price conduction has asymmetric characteristic,namely whenWuxi japonica rice price went up,the price adjustments of Shanghai distributors had been more positive than when they fell.Moreover,Wuxi japonica rice processors and distributors suffered more severe shocks when the price of japonica rice in Shanghai fell than when the price rose.The price conduction between Wuxi japonica rice and paddy is also asymmetric,which shows that the japonica price in Wuxi market has a more severe reaction to the negative fluctuation of paddy price,which means that japonica rice processing manufacturers and distributors cannot obtain the benefits brought by the decline of upstream product price.The imperfect market competition and import trade are the significant factors that affect the transversely correlated market price and the lengthwaysly correlated market price path of rice.Under the condition of asymmetric price conduction,the profit distribution among the main bodies of rice distribution market and the market vertical integration have taken place the profound changes.