经济结构失衡限制东北经济增长了吗?——基于结构方程模型的分析

Does Economic Structure Imbalance Restrict Economic Growth in Northeast China? ——Based on the Structure Equation Modeling

构建经济结构失衡评价指标体系,运用因子分析法对2015年东北地区经济结构失衡水平进行测算,并基于结构方程模型探究经济结构失衡对经济增长的影响。结果表明:东北地区经济结构整体处于中度失衡水平,各结构要素失衡度由高到低的排名为:投资消费结构失衡度最高,区域经济结构、金融结构、国际收支结构、产业结构次之。经济结构各要素失衡对经济增长产生不同的效应,其中,金融结构、区域经济结构以及投资消费结构失衡抑制经济增长,而适度失衡的产业结构和国际收支结构仍然能促进经济增长。在未来经济结构调整中,应该继续优化产业结构和国际收支结构,大力发展金融产业,改善投资消费结构和区域经济结构,同时注意各结构要素协调、有序发展,以实现东北地区经济持续、健康、稳定增长。

By constructing an index system of the economic structure imbalance measurement and using the factor analysis method, this paper evaluates the economic structure imbalance level of Northeast China in 2015, and examines the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth based on the structural equation model. The results show that the imbalance of economic structure in Northeast China is at a moderate level in all. The rank of imbalance level from high to low is as follows:investment and consumption structure, regional economic structure, financial structure, payments structure, industrial structure. The structural equation model reveals that different structural elements induce different effects on economic growth. For example, the imbalance of financial structure, regional economic structure and investment and consumption structure inhibit economic growth, but industrial structure and regional economic structure still promote economic growth even though they are moderate unbalance. In the future, the industrial structure and the international payments structure should be optimized, the financial industry be developed, the investment and consumption structure as well as regional economic structure be improved. In addition, coordinating various structural elements is also important to achieve sustainable, healthy and stable economic growth in Northeast China.