“一带一路”沿线贸易协定的贸易促进效应——基于PSM模型的实证分析

Trade Promotion Effect of Trade Agreements between the Countries along “The Belt and Road” ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Propensity Score Matching Model

采用"一带一路"沿线国家双边贸易数据,运用倾向得分匹配(PSM)模型实证分析了贸易协定对"一带一路"国家间贸易的影响,并评估了不同一体化程度的贸易协定对贸易的促进程度。结果表明:基于传统引力模型的OLS低估了贸易协定的影响,贸易协定不仅增加了成员国间的贸易,而且对于尚未达成协定的国家间贸易的潜在促进作用更大;一体化程度越深,贸易协定的促进作用越明显,基于不同模型设定的稳健性检验均支持上述结论。

Nowadays China is actively promoting the Free Trade Area Strategy and working out the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the propensity score matching model and bilateral trade data of countries along the Belt and Road, this paper analyzes the effect of trade agreements on trade flow between countries along the Belt and Road, and estimates trade effects of trade agreements with different degrees of economic integration. The results show that the classical gravity model underestimates the effects of trade agreements. Trade Agreements not only increase trade between member countries, also can better intrigue the potentials of country pairs without agreements. The deeper degree of integration, the greater effects of trade agreements on trade. Robust tests based on different model specifications support the above conclusions.