地方债加速器存在吗?——基于面板VAR模型的实证检验

Does the Local Government Debt Accelerator Exist?——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model

基于新口径地级市城投债数据,利用面板VAR模型,实证检验中国宏观经济波动中的地方债加速器机制。实证结果表明:地方政府以土地出让收入作为抵押发行地方债,形成独特的信贷约束,土地出让收入的提高会通过放松地方政府的信贷约束导致地方债发行的扩张;由于地方债资金主要用于地方基础设施建设等生产性支出,地方债发行的扩张最终会导致显著的产出波动;晋升激励下的地方政府竞争为这一过程提供了内在支撑。地方债加速器是结合中国制度特征对标准金融加速器理论的扩展,为地方政府行为在中国经济波动中扮演的重要角色提供了具体的传导机制。化解地方债风险,应充分考虑地方债的加速器问题。

This paper examines and confirms the existence of the local government debt accelerator, based on panel VAR model and a new database of municipal investment bonds issued by prefecture-level cities in China. Since local government uses land revenue as collateral to issue bonds,an increase of land revenue will lead to a debt expansion by relaxing local government’s credit constraint. Due to the fact that these bonds are issued to invest in infrastructure projects, the local government debt expansion can produce output fluctuation. Regional competition serves as a powerful incentive behind this process. The local government debt accelerator extends the financial accelerator theory by emphasizing the importance of local government’s behavior in China. Meanwhile, it reveals the nexus of local government debt and land finance, it also includes possible risk transmission channels.