我国全科医生人力资源配置分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Human Resources Allocation of General Practitioners in China

目的分析我国2017年全科医生人力资源配置情况,并预测2020年全科医生数,为全科医生配置提供参考。方法利用集聚度和灰色预测法,分析我国全科医生资源配置的公平性与政策目标的实现度。结果2017年我国全科医生252717人,每万居民全科医生1.82名,执业(助理)医生中全科医生占比较低(7.45%)。东中西部全科医生的注册率分别为41.75%、35.73%、30.82%。从集聚度看,东部地区按地理面积配置(4.90)过度集中,按人口配置(1.33)略微集中;中部地区按地理面积配置(1.42)略微集中,但按人口配置(0.80)不足;西部地区按地理面积配置(0.38)和人口配置(0.73)均不足。预测2020年我国全科医生达366410人,其中,东中西部每万居民全科医生分别为3.33、2.37、1.77名。结论目前亟需高度重视西部全科医生的人才培养与引进,以保证资源配置的公平性。建议加大政府投入力度,将医疗资源向西部倾斜,鼓励东部地区对口支援西部,大力发展西部地区的医学教育,建立健全全科医生的激励机制和绩效考核机制,提高全科医生的职业吸引力,并积极引入"互联网+"赋能全科医生以提高其服务能力和效率。

Objective To analyze the human resources allocation of general practitioners of China in 2017,and to forecast the number of general practitioners in 2020.To make reference for the deployment of general practitioners in the future.Methods Using agglomeration analysis and grey prediction method,to analyze the configuration status quo,fairness and achievement of policy objectives of general practitioners in China.Results In 2017,the number of general practitioners was 252717,the number of general practitioners per 10000 inhabitants was 1.82,and the proportion of general practitioners(7.45%)was relatively low among all practicing(assistant)physicians.The registration rates in the eastern,central and western regions were 41.75%,35.73%,and 30.82%,respectively.From the perspective of agglomeration,The eastern region of China is excessively concentrated in terms of geographical area(4.90)and slightly concentrated in terms of population(1.33).The central region is slightly concentrated in terms of geographical area(1.42),but insufficient in terms of population(0.80).The distribution of the western region by geographical area(0.38)and population(0.73)is insufficient.According to forecasts,the number of general practitioners in China would reach 366410 by the year 2020.The number of general practitioners per 10000 inhabitants in the eastern,central and western regions would be 3.33,2.37,and 1.77,respectively.Conclusion It is urgent to attach great importance to the cultivation and introduction of general practitioners in western China to ensure the fairness of resource allocation.It is suggested that the government should increase its input,tilt medical resources to the west,encourage the eastern counterpart to support the western region,vigorously develop medical education in the western region,establish and improve the incentive mechanism and performance appraisal mechanism of general practitioners,and improve the occupational attractiveness of general practitioners,and actively introduce"Internet plus"to empower general practitioners to improve their service capacity and efficiency.