国际制造业区位变迁的碳排放效应研究

Carbon Emission Effect of Location Vicissitude of International Manufacturing Industry

选取与制造业区位转移相关的主要国家和地区,采用LMDI分解方法定量分析制造业区位转移对国际制造业CO2排放总量的作用机制,并进一步测算其对各国制造业CO2排放的贡献。研究发现,2000~2014年,制造业区位转移促进了国际制造业CO2排放总量增长,且其对各国和地区制造业CO2排放变化具有一定影响,不同程度上增加中国大陆、印度等新兴工业体的CO2排放,而减少了美日英德发达工业体的CO2排放。

Since the 21 st century, the location of manufacturing industry has further shifted from the developed industries in Europe and America to the emerging industries in Asia. Whether the vicissitude of international manufacturing location will increase global carbon emission has become a topic worthy of attention. In this article, we selected countries associated with manufacturing location vicissitude closely, and adopted LMDI decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the effect of industry location vicissitude on total carbon emission of international manufacturing industry, and further measure its contribution to each country’s carbon emission. The results show that during 2000-2014, the location change of the manufacturing industry promoted the increase of the total carbon emission of the international manufacturing industry, and the emission increment increased first and then decreased, and it was smaller than the increment caused by the scale growth in each stage. The main reason for the increase of total carbon emission caused by location vicissitude is that the location of international manufacturing industry transferred from the developed industries to the emerging industries(the share of the developed decreased from 53.79% in 2000 to 23.96% in 2014, and the share of the emerging increased from 46.21% to 76.04%), and the carbon emission coefficient of the emerging industries was higher than that of the developed industries. In the context of the same amount of production scale, the manufacturing location shifting to countries with high emission coefficient leads to the increase of the total international carbon emission. In order to alleviate the climate-economic dilemma, attention should be paid to the relevant technical knowledge diffusion simultaneously, so that the global or regional difference in carbon intensity could be shrunk. Additionally, the location shift of manufacturing industry has a certain impact on the carbon emission change of each country’s manufacturing industry. To different extent, it has increased the carbon emissions of emerging industries, such as the Chinese mainland, and reduced the carbon emissions of developed industries, such as the United States, Japan, Britain and Germany. For example, in 2000-2005,2005-2010, and 2010-2014, the growth range of manufacturing carbon emission in China's Mainland was116.09%, 44.31% and 8.31%, respectively. Among them, industrial relocation contributed to an increase in carbon emissionof 67.76%, 50.89% and 16.78%. the United States’ growth range of manufacturing carbon emission was -19.43%, 0.35% and -12.20%, respectively, while industrial relocation led to an increase in carbon emission of -20.49%,-41.62% and -13.64%. It can be seen that the relocation of manufacturing industry plays an important role in the increase or decrease of a country’s carbon emission. Therefore, when measuring the responsibility of each country to reduce emission and evaluating the effect of emission reduction, the role of each country in the global industrial division of labor system should be taken into account. So it could safeguard the development rights of emerging industrial countries on the one hand. On the other hand, the global carbon reduction process can be pushed forward. This article uses LMDI decomposition method to quantitatively analyze the carbon emission effect of manufacturing industry relocation, which can provide a method reference for the measurement of global/regional carbon emission change caused by industrial location transfer.