浙江县域“四化同步”与居民幸福协调发展的时空分异特征及其形成机制

Spatial-Temporal Differentiation Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Coordinated Development of "Four Modernizations" and Residents’ Happiness in Zhejiang Province

以浙江省69个县域为分析对象,选取了2005~2015年的面板数据作为研究样本,重构"四化同步"和居民幸福的综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法、ESDA、耦合协调模型和GWR模型等方法,对浙江省区域"四化同步"与居民幸福之间的耦合协调度进行了测度,并分析了其空间演化特征以及形成机制。得到了以下结论:2005~2015年,"四化同步"发展水平、居民幸福综合指数、耦合度以及耦合协调度均呈上升趋势,耦合协调度展现了"东北高,西南低"的空间演进趋势,空间集聚的强度以倒"V"型变迁。已形成由杭州湾为核心的连绵区域,不断向外扩散最终以杭州市区-宁波市区双核心分布的热点区域,浙西南散点分布的冷点区域。"四化同步"演进与居民幸福协调发展的影响因子具有明显的地域特征,其影响因子作用强度自信息意识、市场机会、居住环境、经济机会、文化价值和开放共享依次递减。

The study takes 69 counties in Zhejiang Province as the analysis object and selects the panel data from 2005 to 2015 as the research sample. Through the construction of "Four modernizations" level and residents’ happiness comprehensive evaluation index system, the entropy method, coupled coordination model,ESDA and geo-weighted regression model and other methods are used to measure the degree of coupling and coordination between the "Four modernizations" and the residents’ happiness in Zhejiang Province, and the spatial features and formation mechanism are analyzed by using spatial visualization method. The following conclusions are drawn: From 2005 to 2015, the level of development of "Four Modernizations", the comprehensive index of happiness of residents, the degree of coupling and coordination all show a rising trend. On the whole, the degree of coordination is a spatial development trend of "northeast high, southwest low", and the distribution of spatial agglomeration shows the characteristics of inverted "V" type spatial evolution. The general trend has formed a significant hotspots that spread from Hangzhou which is the core area to the surrounding areas, and a significant cold spot areas which are the border areas of Zhejiang Province southwestern areas.The influential factors of the coordinated development of "Four modernizations" and residents’ well-being have obvious geographical differences, self-awareness, open sharing, social opportunities, cultural values, living environment and economic opportunities are decreasing in turn.