基于航行数据的北极地区船舶排放清单

Emission inventory of ship based on navigation data in Arctic region

基于自动识别系统分析了极地船舶航行数据,考虑冰区船舶受力,提出了主机功率估算模型;选取劳氏船级社数据验证了主机功率模型的可行性与可信度;结合3种不同的航行状态与排放因子、负荷因子建立了动态船舶废气排放模型;选取中国远洋海运集团有限公司穿越北极地区的"永盛"轮等5艘船舶的航行数据,使用燃油消耗法对船舶排放估算模型进行验证;利用排放估算模型计算了北极地区船舶排放清单,并在ArcGIS上显示排放的时空分布等特征。研究结果表明:北极地区的各类船舶废气排放中,CO2的排放量最多,约为69.7%,NOx和SOx次之,分别为13.3%和12.0%,CH4最少,为0.4%;各类船型的排放分担率最大的为集装箱船(29.3%),其次为破冰船(28.8%),其中集装箱船和散货船的废气排放量占比达到了50.4%;北极地区船舶废气CH4、CO2、CO、HC、NOx、SOx、PM的排放量分别为504.85、82 545.63、1 645.90、562.54、15 711.47、14 232.54、3 263.15 t,与船舶交通流密度相符;2016年9月散货船、集装箱船、油轮和渔船废气排放量最大,10、11月逐渐减少,这与该地区的冰封情况有较大关系;一天内,滚装船、渔船和破冰船的废气排放在11:00~18:00出现一段波峰,这可能是由船舶的工作性质决定的。

Based on the automatic identification system(AIS), polar ship navigation data were analyzed, and the estimate model of main engine power was established by considering the ice force on the ship. The feasibility and credibility of the main engine power model were verified based on the database of the Lloyd’s Register. The dynamic emission model of ship was established by taking account of three navigate states, emission factors and load factors. The navigation data of five ships, including Yongsheng Vessel, ect., which crossing the Arctic region, were selected by the China COSCO Shipping Co., Ltd., and the ship emission estimation model was validated by the fuel consumption method. The emission inventory in the Arctic region was calculated by the emission estimation model, and the temporal and spatial patterns of the emissions were demonstrated on the ArcGIS. Analysis result shows that,among all kinds of ship exhaust emissions in the Arctic region, the CO2 emission is the largest, about 69.7%, followed by NOx and SOx about 13.3% and 12.0%, respectively, and CH4 is the least, only 0.4%. The emission share ratio of container ships is the largest, reaching 29.3%, and the ratio of icebreakers is the second, reaching 28.8%. Container ships and bulk carriers account for 50.4% of exhaust emissions. The emissions of CH4, CO2, CO, HC, NOx, SOx, and PM in the Arctic region are 504.85, 82 545.63, 1 645.90, 562.54, 15 711.47, 14 232.54, and 3 263.15 t, respectively, which is generally consistent with the density of vessel traffic. In 2016, the emissions from bulk carriers, container ships, tankers, and fishing boats were the largest in September, and gradually decreased in October and November, which is more related to the icebound condition. Within a day, the emissions of ro-ro ships, fishing boats, and icebreakers have a peak range from 11:00 to 18:00, which may be caused by their work natures. 6 tabs, 8 figs, 30 refs.