人口老龄化对区域技术创新的异质门槛效应研究

Study on Heterogeneous Threshold Effects of Population Aging on Regional Technological Innovation

采用2007~2016年中国30个省区面板数据,从发展程度、发展速度和社会质量三个维度测度人口老龄化。在此基础上,运用面板聚类模型将人口老龄化区域划分为四类,结合面板门槛进一步探究人口老龄化对区域技术创新的异质性影响。研究表明:(1)四类区域的人口老龄化发展特征显著,其对区域技术创新具有线性和非线性影响;(2)人口老龄化发展速度对四类区域的技术创新表现为显著线性抑制作用;(3)人口老龄化发展程度和社会质量对区域技术创新存在异质门槛效应。发展程度对区域技术创新的单一门槛效应存在于深度老龄化区域;社会质量仅对浅度老龄化区域技术创新产生显著U型影响。

Based on 30 provinces panel data in China from 2007 to 2016, this paper constructs an evaluation index system including development degree, development speed and social quality to measure population aging, and the panel cluster model divides population aging regions into four types. Furthermore, the heterogeneous impact of population aging on regional technological innovation is studied by the panel threshold model. Results show that:(1) Four population aging regions have some significant development characteristics, which have linear and nonlinear effects on regional technological innovation.(2) The development speed of population aging has a linear inhibitory effect on regional technological innovation.(3) The development degree and social quality of population aging have a heterogeneous threshold effect on regional technological innovation. The single threshold effect of development degree exists in deep aging regions;social quality only has a u-shaped effect in shallow aging region.