关于互联网众筹平台操纵行为的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Manipulation Behavior of Internet Crowdfunding Platform

以京东众筹的交易数据为基础,通过分析众筹分布的盈余光滑度,探寻到众筹操纵的痕迹,构建了界定操纵行为的三类标准;随后通过Logit模型,实证分析了众筹项目特征对众筹操纵的影响情况,发现公司法人发起的项目存在众筹操纵行为的概率更高,募集金额大的项目存在众筹操纵行为的概率更高;最后,通过检验众筹操纵与关注度和好评度的关系,发现操纵行为与项目关注度具有显著负相关关系,从不同角度识别的操纵行为与项目好评度有不同的相关关系。

Based on the transaction data of Jingdong Crowdfunding platform in China, this paper analyzes the excessive smoothness of crowdfunding distribution, and constructs three types of standards that can identify manipulative behavior by exploring the traces of these behavior. Subsequently, it empirically analyzes the impact of crowdfunding project characteristics on crowdfunding manipulation through the Logit mode. It is found that the probability of crowdfunding manipulation is higher in the projects initiated by corporate institutions, and is higher in projects with large amount of fundraising. Finally, it examines the relationship between crowdfunding manipulation and its attention attraction and popularity. It is found that projects with manipulative behavior attracts significantly less attention, the manipulative behavior identified from different perspective has varying associations with its popularity.