1950-2018年云南省家鼠鼠疫疫源地动物间鼠疫流行病学分析

Epidemiological analysis of the domestic rodents plague natural foci among animals in Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2018

目的分析云南省家鼠鼠疫疫源地内动物间鼠疫的流行趋势,为制定鼠疫防控策略提供依据。方法云南省1950-2018年鼠疫疫情监测和总结资料来自云南省地方病防治所。采用描述性流行病学方法,分析动物间鼠疫的流行情况;运用SPSS 21.0软件建立简单线性回归方程,分析1982-2007年动物间鼠疫流行与鼠密度、染蚤率以及人间鼠疫的相关性。结果1950-2018年,云南省有动物疫情发生的地区共12个地(州)、51个县(市),有疫点数1722个;共在98个县(市)设立了7152个监测点。鼠疫疫情在1950-1956年局限于滇西地区,1957-1981年处于静息期,1982-2007年由滇西、滇西南逐渐向滇南、滇中、滇东南和滇东发展,2008年以后再次进入静息期;鼠疫流行季节主要集中在6-11月份。简单线性回归方程分析显示,动物间鼠疫(Y)与鼠密度(X)间的回归方程Y=9.112+44.848X、人间鼠疫(Y)与动物间鼠疫(X)间的回归方程Y=2.261+0.139X均有统计学意义(F=9.306、5.371,P均<0.05)。结论云南省家鼠鼠疫疫源地动物间鼠疫流行趋势呈"波浪型",动物间鼠疫与鼠密度、人间鼠疫均存在相关性,动物鼠疫疫情的监测是预防动物间及人间鼠疫发生的关键。

Objective To analyze the epidemic trend of the domestic rodents plague natural foci among animals in Yunnan Province,so as to provide a basis for formulating plague prevention and control strategies.Methods Monitoring and summarizing data of plague epidemic situation in Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2018 were collected from Yunnan Institute for Endemic Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence of plague among animals.Simple linear regression equations were established using SPSS 21.0 software to analyze the correlation between plague epidemics and rat density,dyeing rate and human plague in 1982-2007.Results From 1950 to 2018,51 counties(cities)in 12 regions(prefectures)were confirmed to have animal epidemics in Yunnan Province,and 1722 epidemic spots were found.A total of 7152 monitoring sites had been set up in 98 counties(cities).From 1950 to 1956,the plague epidemic in Yunnan Province was confined to western Yunnan;the 1957-1981 was the resting period;1982-2007,the epidemic spread from west and southwest to south,central,southeast and east of Yunnan Province;after 2008 entered resting period again.The epidemic season of plague was mainly from June to November.Simple linear regression equation analysis showed that the regression equation Y=9.112+44.848X between animal plague(Y)and rat density(X)and the regression equation Y=2.261+0.139X between human plague(Y)and animal plague(X)were statistically significant(F=9.306,5.371,P<0.05).Conclusions The epidemic trend of plague among animals in Yunnan Province is a"wave type".There is a correlation between animal plague and rat density and human plague.It is the key to prevent the occurrence of animal plague and human plague by monitoring the plague epidemics in animals.