债务杠杆与地方政府债务违约风险关系研究

A Study of the Relationship between Debt Leverage and Default Risks of Local Government Debt

以KMV模型为基础,通过适当的变量替换,对地方政府债务违约风险和债务杠杆之间的关系进行理论分析。同时,利用2012-2017年我国大陆30个省份(西藏除外)的年度债务还本付息额和可偿债财政收入等数据,运用面板数据模型对地方政府债务杠杆和债务违约风险之间的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明,债务杠杆与地方政府债务违约风险之间显著负相关。另外,财政分权程度、地区经济发展水平、城镇人口占比、房地产依赖程度、地方政府财政收入占GDP比重、市场化程度均会对地方政府债务违约风险产生显著的影响。因此,为了有效防控地方政府债务风险,建议从健全地方政府债务预警和监测体系、合理匹配中央与地方政府间财权和事权、培植地方政府有效财源、降低房地产依赖、完善债券发行市场化机制等方面作出努力。

Based on KMV Model, this paper conducts a theoretical analysis of the relationship between local government debt default risk and debt leverage through suitable variable substitution. At the same time, it makes use of the data of annual debt repayment, interest payments and financial revenue that can be used for repayment of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2017 to carry out an empirical test of the relationship between local government debt leverage and debt default risk with the panel data model. The findings show that there is a significant negative correlation between debt leverage and default risks of local government debt. In addition, such factors as the degree of fiscal decentralization, the regional economic development level, the proportion of urban population, the degree of real estate dependence, the proportion of local government revenue to GDP, and the marketization degree can all produce significant impact on the default risks of local government debt. Therefore, in order to prevent and control local government debt risks effectively, it is suggested to make great efforts in the following aspects, i.e., to improve the early warning and monitoring systems for local government debts, to reasonably match the financial and administrative powers between the central government and local governments, to cultivate effective financial resources of local governments,to reduce real estate dependence, and to perfect the market-oriented mechanism of bond issuance.