相互溢出效应对区域经济协同发展的贡献——基于我国东部沿海地区面板数据的实证分析

Contribution of Mutual Spillover Effect to Coordinated Development of Regional Economy——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data in Eastern Coastal Areas of China

区域经济协同发展离不开相互溢出效应的持续作用。文章通过构建GVAR模型,利用我国东部沿海5省(市)的面板数据,在充分考虑各地区异质性的基础上,实证了制度变迁对各地区经济增长的空间外溢效应,包括正溢出效应、负溢出效应。结果表明,区域间经济发展呈现紧密的正相关联动关系,其中,本地区的经济增长对周边地区经济发展有带动作用,周边地区的经济增长对本地区经济发展有促进作用。进一步分析双方或多方经济增长溢出效应的差异性,评估制度适应效率,有助于规划各省的经济发展模式,界定相互间的经济发展关系,推动制度变迁。

The coordinated development of regional economy cannot be separated from the continuous role of mutual spillover effect.Through the construction of the GVAR model,the paper uses the panel data of 5 provinces(cities) in eastern coastal areas of China.The model is based on full consideration of heterogeneity in different regions.This paper demonstrates the spatial spillover effects of regional economic growth,including positive spillover effects and negative spillover effects.The results show that the interregional economic development presents a close linkage relationship.Among them,the economic growth of the region has a driving effect on the economic development of the surrounding areas,and the economic growth of the surrounding areas has a promoting effect on the economic development of the region.This paper further analyses the differences of spillover effects of economic growth between two or more parties,and evaluates the efficiency of institutional adaptation.It is helpful to plan the economic development model of each province,define the economic development relationship among them and promote the institutional change.