人口老龄化对产业结构升级的溢出效应研究——基于空间动态杜宾模型

Research on the Spillover Effect of Population Aging on the Industrial Structure Upgrading:Based on Spatial Dynamic Durbin Model

本文基于1998-2016年我国省际层面的面板数据,构建空间动态杜宾模型研究了人口老龄化对产业结构整体升级和产业结构内部升级的溢出效应。结果表明:产业结构升级存在显著的空间依赖性和动态效应;人口老龄既会对当地产业结构的整体升级产生显著的推动作用,又会对邻近区域产业结构的整体升级产生显著的正向空间溢出效应,且长期效果强于短期效果,但人口老龄化对产业结构内部升级的影响及空间溢出效应均不显著。分区域的研究结果则显示,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响存在显著的区域异质性;人口老龄化会显著推动东部地区产业结构的整体升级,同时还会对东部地区邻近区域产业结构的整体升级及服务业结构的内部升级产生显著的正向空间溢出效应;人口老龄化既会对中部地区服务业结构的内部升级产生显著的积极影响,又会对中部地区邻近区域制造业结构的内部升级产生显著的正向空间溢出效应;人口老龄化对西部地区产业结构整体升级和制造业结构内部升级的影响均显著为正。

Based on the panel data of the provincial level in China from 1998 to 2016,this paper constructs the spatial dynamic Durbin model to study the spillover effect of population aging on the integral and internal upgrading of industrial structure.The results show that there are significant spatial dependency and dynamic effect in the industrial structure upgrading;the population aging not only has significantly promote the integral upgrading of the local industrial structure,but also generate a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the integral upgrading of the industrial structure in the neighboring regions;the spatial spillover effect of long-term is stronger than short-term;but the population aging has no significant effect and spatial spillover effect on the internal industrial structure upgrading.The results of sub-regional study show that the impact of population aging on the upgrading exist significant regional difference;the population aging has significant positive impact on the integral upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern region,and it also has significant positive spatial spillover effect on the integral upgrading of the industrial structure and the internal upgrading of the service industry structure;the population aging will only has significant positive impact on the internal upgrading of the service industry structure in the central region,and the spatial spillover effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure is significantly positive;the population aging has significant positive impact on the integral upgrading of the industrial structure and the internal upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure in the western region.