山西省农村居民潜在国内出游力研究

Study on the Potential Domestic Outward Force of Rural Residents in Shanxi Province

从地区经济指标、交通运输类指标、社会类指标3个方面选取8个指标作为山西省农村居民潜在国内出游力研究的原始指标,运用因子多变量统计方法对统计数据进行分析处理,得到了2个公因子.利用居民潜在出游力回归模型,计算出山西省农村居民潜在国内出游力的综合得分,并进行排序和分类,发现乡村户数(X 1)、人口密度(X 2)、农业总产值(X 4)、公路里程(X 7)、公路客运量(X 8)是主要影响因素.结合定性分析,山西省农村居民潜在国内出游力大致可分为3类,其地区差异较大,评价结果符合各地区实际情况.结合主要影响因子,分析如何使农村居民潜在国内出游力提升,对开拓农民旅游市场有一定的参考价值.

Eight indicators were selected from the three aspects of regional economic indicators,transportation indicators and social indicators as the original indicators for the study of the potential domestic outward of rural residents in Shanxi Province.Statistical data were analyzed and processed by using factor multivariate statistical methods.Two common factors were obtained.Using the residents’potential returning force regression model,the comprehensive scores of the potential domestic residents of rural residents in Shanxi Province were calculated,and the ranking and classification were conducted.The number of rural households(X 1),population density(X 2),Gross output value(X 4),highway mileage(X 7),and road passenger traffic(X 8)are found to be main influencing factors.Combined with qualitative analysis,the potential domestic rural residents of Shanxi Province can be roughly divided into three categories and their regional differences are relatively large.The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation in each region.Based on the main impact factors,this paper analyzes how to increase the potential of domestic residents to increase their travel force and has a certain reference value for exploring the farmers’tourism market.