上海入境旅游需求建模及分析

Analysis of Inbound Tourism Demand Modeling in Shanghai

通过对20年上海入境游客相关数据和“从一般到具体”的计量经济建模方法为上海5个主要客源国/地到上海的入境旅游需求建模。结果表明决定上海入境旅游需求的最重要因素为客源地的经济状况,“口碑效应”以及到上海的旅游成本也会产生重要影响。模型得出的相关需求弹性为上海的旅游产业政策制定提供参考。

By using Shanghai’s 20-year inbound tourism data and the general-to-specific modeling approach,this paper identifies tourism demand for 5 main source countries/regions for Shanghai inbound tourism.The results show that the most influencing factor of Shanghai inbound tourism is income level of source country/region,followed by“word of mouth effect”and cost of travel from origin country/region to Shanghai.The tourism demand elasticity derived from the study will provide theoretical basis for the development of tourism policy making in Shanghai.