动荡下的石油市场何去何从

Fluctuation remains main theme for oil

今年国际原油价格大起大落,整体走势犹如过山车。如何在市场脉动中把握规律应对未来走势?藉此文以飨读者。今年以来,全球主要经济体表现低迷,地缘政治局势动荡加剧,石油市场深刻调整,国际油价波动区间在55-75美元/桶,均价较去年同期下跌超过10%,整体呈现绝对水平低、波动率高的特点。

The international crude oil price has been fluctuating like a roller coaster as affected largely by macroscopic factors such as global economy and geopolitics this year.The Brent oil price range was US$55-75 per barrel,rising from to the highest point of the year on 24 April then starting to fall ever since.The average Brent oil price for the first three quarters was US$64.77 per barrel,dropping 10.9% YoY.Brent future remained the backwardation structure,expanding the price difference as much as US$2.5 per barrel,the largest since 2011.WTI oil price range for the first three quarters was US$46-67 per barrel,with average price of US$57.12 dropping 14.5% YoY.Dubai oil price range was US$50-75 per barrel,with US$64.04 as the average dropping8.6% YoY.The Sino-US trade conflicts worsened since May and showed no sign of easing in near future,dragging the international benchmark oil price down.IMF has lowered for four consecutive times its forecast for global economy growth,now to 3.2%,the lowest since the financial crisis happened.More economies are launching stimulus.The overall fundamentals of oil demand and supply will remain basically balanced.What is worth mentioning here is that the global sulphur cap that IMO set for the industry is compelling shipowners to switch into low-sulphur marine fuel,driving more oil majors to increase supply.Though IEA has cut the 2019 oil demand to 1.06 million barrels per day,the 2020 forecast is 1.15 million barrels per day.