基于贝叶斯网络的安徽省经济发展水平研究

Research on Economic Development Level of Anhui Province Based on Bayesian Network

针对安徽省经济发展现状,构建安徽省经济发展影响因素贝叶斯网络结构模型。量化分析不同条件下各因素发生的概率,提取影响安徽省经济发展水平的关键因素,并对安徽省经济发展水平作总体评价。结果表明:增加固定资产投资总额会大幅度提高安徽省经济处于高发展水平的概率;社会消费品零售总额、工业总资产贡献率是影响安徽省经济发展水平的关键因素;目前安徽省整体经济处于相对较低的发展水平。对策建议:加大固定资产投资,为推动安徽省经济发展提供坚实的物质基础;扩大实物消费市场、不断创新消费模式,提高社会消费品零售总额,从根本上提高安徽省经济发展水平。

According to the status quo of economic development in Anhui Province,the Bayesian network structure model of the economic development factors in Anhui Province is constructed.Quantitative analysis of the probability of occurrence of various factors under different conditions,extracting the key factors affecting the economic development level of Anhui Province,and making an overall evaluation of the economic development level of Anhui Province.The results show that increasing the total fixed assets investment will greatly increase the probability that Anhui’s economy is at a high level of development;the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the contribution rate of total industrial assets are the key factors affecting the economic development level of Anhui Province;and the overall economy of Anhui Province is at a relatively low level of development at present.Countermeasure Suggestions:Increase investment in fixed assets to provide a solid material basis for promoting the economic development of Anhui Province;expand the physical consumption market,continuously innovate consumption patterns,increase the total retail sales of social consumer goods,and fundamentally improve the level of economic development of Anhui Province.