论台湾地区军备“国造”问题——兼谈美台安全关系新趋向

On the Issue that Taiwan Is Producing Weapons by Itself and the Development of US-Taiwan Military Cooperation

面对美国对台售武在数量及性能方面的客观限制,台当局谋求自主研发尖端武器,提升针对解放军的“非对称”作战能力。蔡英文当局抛出所谓“国机国造”、潜艇“国造”计划,自主研发柴电潜艇、隐身战机及防空驱逐舰成为台军力发展重点。特朗普政府对此赞许,美台实现磋商并开启实质性合作。在美国并不大批售台尖端进攻性武器情况下,面对陆台军力对比加速失衡以及西太平洋地区中美军力对比的历史性巨变,美国乐见通过提升台武器“国造”能力,增加台湾当局武力拒统的筹码,增添中国大陆军事解决台湾问题的机会成本,为美日“地区有事”时介入台海局势赢得战略时间。但台湾地区有限的尖端武器装备制造能力,美国军工企业担心对台军售超额利润可能萎缩以及中国大陆的可能反制等,均将对台湾当局武器“国造”构成不利条件。面对近来中美关系的战略震荡以及美台安全关系的战术性强化,美国参与下的台湾当局武器“国造”计划,将成为美台安全合作更趋重要的发力点,亦将成为贸易摩擦与大国竞争时代背景下中美国家间矛盾的新组成。

Due to that US can not sell Taiwan too many sophisticated weapons,the Taiwan authorities have always been trying to produce sophisticated weapons by themselves.So that Taiwan can hold the ability of asymmetric warfare towards China's Mainland.Tsai Ing-wen authorities take more emphasis on the ability of manufacturing weapons by Taiwan,so Taipei declared that Taiwan will produce the stealth fighter plane,the submarine and the air defense destroyer by Taiwan in the future.US government welcomes that declaration and Washington begin to consult this issue with Taipei.In the consideration that PLA has taken the military dominance of Taiwan Strait and the change of strength comparison between US and China's Mainland,US is willing to assist Taiwan to produce sophisticated weapons.In doing so,it can help Taiwan build the ability to resist the military operations taken by PLA.However,the ability of cutting-edge industry manufacturing of Taiwan is limited,and some US defense industry enterprise are not satisfied that Taiwan will produce more weapons than buying weapons from US,so the future of manufacturing sophisticated weapons by Taiwan is still noncommittal.In the cases that US-China relations got unstable recently and US-Taiwan relations will be strengthened tactically,the tendency that US help Taiwan produce sophisticated weapons will be an important part of US-Taiwan military cooperation and US-China bilateral contradictions.