金融创新、新型城镇化与区域经济增长——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

Financial Innovation,New Urbanization and Regional Economic Growth ——Analysis Based on Spatial Dubin Model

本文基于2008~2017年全国30个省域的面板数据,通过DEA模型测度我国的金融创新水平;利用Kernel密度估计方法对金融创新、新型城镇化及经济增长的动态演变过程加以阐述;并结合全局莫兰指数及局部莫兰指数散点图,分析三者的空间相关性;采用超越对数函数,引入空间杜宾模型,分析金融创新、新型城镇化以及二者交互项对区域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:我国省域经济增长、金融创新和新型城镇化存在明显的空间异质性和空间相关性;金融创新和新型城镇化促进经济增长效果显著,但二者交互项却抑制经济增长,说明二者融合度欠缺,不能为经济增长提供动力。基于此,应充分认识到满足新型城镇化建设的资金需求是有效促进经济增长的必然途径,而加强金融资源的合理配置从而引致金融创新活动是扩大资金供给的关键。

The paper empirically analyzes the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017.First,it uses DEA model to measure the level of financial innovation.Then,through Kernel density estimation,the dynamic evolution process of financial innovation,new urbanization and economic growth has been explained.Next,it analyzes the spatial correlation of them by the global Moran index and the local Moran index scatter plot.Finally,by adopting the transcendental logarithmic function,the spatial Dubin model has been applied to illustrate the impact of financial innovation,new urbanization and the interaction of the two on regional economic growth.It shows that there are obvious spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation in China’s provincial economic growth,financial innovation and new urbanization.Financial innovation and new urbanization have a significant effect on economic growth,but the interaction between the two has restrained economic growth,indicating that the two cannot be intergrated and provide impetus for economic growth.Based on this,it should be fully recognized that meeting the capital needs of new urbanization construction is an inevitable way to effectively promote economic growth and strengthening the rational allocation of financial resources to lead to financial innovation activities is the key to expand capital supply.