数字贸易谈判与规则竞争——基于区域贸易协定文本量化的研究

Digital Trade Negotiation and Rule Competition——A Study Based on Text Quantification of Regional Trade Agreements

本文通过梳理多边与双边数字贸易条款的“美式模板”与“欧式模板”,对比中国区域贸易协定的电子商务条款,运用自然语言文本处理分析方法对数字贸易条款的异质性进行比较分析,在此基础上对各国签署数字贸易条款的影响因素进行实证检验。研究发现,区域主义下数字贸易条款碎片化问题严重,美国、新加坡、澳大利亚、加拿大等发达国家往往谈判能力较强,扮演着规则制定者的角色,但中国跨境电子商务的发展潜力巨大,在推动全球数字贸易治理方面发挥重要作用。经济规模越大、经济相似性越大、双边距离越近的国家之间越倾向于签署包含数字条款的贸易协定,而互联网普及率差距越大、国家风险差距越大、数字贸易开放度差距越大的国家之间签署数字贸易条款的可能性越小,而且上述因素还影响着数字条款异质性。对于未来中国数字贸易谈判的发展方向,在签署国方面应优先与“一带一路”沿线国家中已与中国有区域贸易协定的国家缔结数字贸易条款,在具体条款方面应逐步纳入互联网访问限制、数据存储非强制本地化和源代码等具体方面,并在确保数据安全的同时逐步提高数字领域开放程度,在数字贸易监管和发展之间寻找平衡点。

This paper sorts out the multilateral and bilateral digital trade provisions,the“American template”and the“European template”and the electronic commerce provisions of China’s trade agreements.Using natural language processing analysis to compare and analyze the heterogeneity of these provisions,this paper has an empirical study on the factors affecting the digital trade provisions by countries.We find that the fragmentation of digital trade provisions under regionalism is serious,developed countries such as the United States,Singapore,Australia,and Canada often have strong negotiating power and play the role of rule-makers.China’s cross-border e-commerce has great potential for development and plays an important role in promoting global digital trade governance.The larger the economy,the greater the economic similarity,and the closer the bilateral distance is,the more likely it is to sign trade agreements with digital trade provisions,the greater the gap in internet penetration,national risk and digital trade openness,the smaller the possibility of signing digital trade terms between large countries.In addition,the above factors also affect the heterogeneity of digital trade provisions.In the future,the direction of China’s digital trade negotiations should give priority to the“Belt and Road”countries,in terms of specific provisions,internet access restrictions,data storage and source code issues should be gradually incorporated.While ensuring data security and gradually increase the openness of the digital domain,China must also find a balance between digital trade regulation and development.