基于时间序列法的大学生身体形态发展趋势研究

Development Trend of College Students’ Body Shape Based on Time Series Method

本研究以经济学和体育学交叉学科的视角,首次采用计量经济学中时间序列分析法对2007~2017年19至22岁大学生身高、体重长期趋势进行分析,并预测2022年的发展趋势,以深入研究大学生体质健康领域。研究表明:大学生身高呈线性增长趋势,同时间内身高较体重增长幅度大,且存在性别差异;2022年大学生的身高、体重预测趋势不同,预示大学生肥胖率不断增加,控制大学生的体重刻不容缓。建议:应加强大学生体育理论的学习,增加大学生的体育锻炼时间,树立“持久锻炼”的观念,养成“终身体育”的意识,从而达到改善大学生体质健康的目的。

From the perspective of interdisciplinary subjects of economics and physical education,this study adopts the time series method in econometrics for the first time to analyze the long-term trend of height and weight of 19 to 22 years old college students from 2007 to 2017,and predict the development trend in 2022,so as to further study the field of college students'physical health.The research shows that the height of college students showed a linear growth trend,and the growth rate of height was larger than that of weight at the same time,and there was gender difference.The prediction trend of height and weight of college students in 2022 is different,indicating that the obesity rate of college students is increasing,so it is urgent to control the weight of college students.It is suggested that we should strengthen the study of college students'physical theory,increase their physical exercise time,establish the concept of“lasting exercise”and develop the consciousness of“lifelong physical exercise”,so as to achieve the purpose of improving college students'physical health.