居民储蓄与房地产市场关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Residents’ Savings and Real Estate Market

本文依据2000年-2018年间的省际面板数据,对全国、东部、中部及西部地区居民储蓄与房地产市场之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示:在全国范围、东部、中部和西部地区,居民储蓄与房地产市场存在高度显著的正相关关系,即房地产价格的不断攀升会导致一定程度居民储蓄的增加。同时,不同地区居民储蓄受房地产市场的影响程度存在差异,其中西部地区的影响程度最大,其次是东部地区,两者均高于全国平均水平,中部地区的影响程度最小且低于全国平均水平。此外,作为控制变量引入的居民收入和人口结构也会对居民储蓄产生影响,且与房地产市场的影响存在内在联系。最后,本文有针对性地提出了促进我国居民储蓄与房地产市场发展的对策建议。

Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018,this paper empirically tests the relationship between household savings and the real estate market in the whole country,the eastern region,the central region and the western region.The results show that there is a highly significant positive correlation between household savings and the real estate market in the country,the eastern,central and western regions,that is,the rising real estate prices will lead to a certain increase in household savings.At the same time,the savings of residents in different regions are affected by the real estate market.The western region has the greatest impact,followed by the eastern region,both of which are higher than the national average.The central region has the least impact and is lower than the national average.In addition,the income and demographic structure of residents introduced as control variables will also have an impact on household savings and are intrinsically linked to the impact of the real estate market.Finally,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the development of China's residents'savings and real estate market.