世界各国冬季项目竞技实力演变及影响因素研究——基于空间自相关分析

Evolution and Influencing Factors of Competitive Strength of Winter Sports in the World:Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis

研究引入空间相关性分析,以第1-23届冬奥会成绩为研究对象,对世界各个国家冬季项目竞技实力时空演变进行分析,并从复杂系统科学视角探索竞技实力发展的新路径,以期为我国冬季项目的更好发展提供参考,助力我国冬季项目在北京冬奥周期取得新突破。研究结果表明,历届冬奥会成绩的Moran指数表明空间差异性较弱,但存在一定的集聚特征。冬奥会发展3个阶段中,高-高集聚、低-高集聚、低-低集聚数量呈减少趋势,而高-低集聚数量增多。冬奥会成绩空间滞后模型表明人口总数(X1)与冬奥会成绩呈负相关性,国土面积(X2)、人均GDP(X4)、科技期刊发文量(X5)与冬奥会成绩呈正相关性,以上4项指标能够较好地反映奥运会成绩差异形成原因。

This study introduces spatial correlation analysis.With performance of the previous 23 Winter Olympic Games as the research object,this paper analyzed the space-time evolution of competitive strength showed in winter sports of all countries respectively,and explored the new path to strengthen competitiveness from the perspective of complicated and systematic science in an effort to provide reference for China’s winter sports and help China’s winter sports achieve a new breakthrough in Beijing Winter Olympic Games.The results show that the Moran index of the past Winter Olympics shows that the spatial difference is weak,but there is a certain clustering feature.Analysis on the three stages of the Winter Olympics shows a decline in the number of high-high concentration,low-high concentration and low-low concentration,but a rise in the number of high-low concentration.The spatial lag model of Winter Olympics performance indicates that the population(X1)is in inverse proportion to the performance of Winter Olympics,while the territorial area(X2),GDP Per Capita(X4)and the number of essays published in scientific journals(X5)are in proportion to the performance of Winter Olympics.The four indicators stated above can better reflect the cause of the difference in Olympic performance.