中国西南周边国家美元化对人民币跨境流通的影响研究

Impact of Dollarization on the RMB Cross-Border Circulation in the Neighboring Countries of Southwest China

2000年以来,中国西南周边国家美元化程度呈现柬埔寨最高、老挝居中,越南较低的演化格局。伴随人民币跨境流通和人民币周边区域化的推进,发现西南周边国家美元化确实能够显著抑制人民币的跨境流通,当考虑人民币跨境流通的滞后影响时,美元化的抑制作用得以消减至11.4%。进一步研究还发现,人民币跨境流通随人民币对周边国家货币升值、周边国家经济金融发展水平以及中国对西南周边国家直接投资的提高而随之增加。美元与人民币在西南周边国家存在一定竞争,后续推进人民币的跨境流通使用必须找准方向和突破口,竭力破除人民币境外流通和使用的各种不利政策与制度藩篱。

Evolution of the dollarization in the neighboring countries of southwest China has shown that the degree of dollarization in Cambodia has been higher,that in Laos has been moderate,and that in Vietnam has been lower since 2000.But the question is:will the dollarization in the neighboring countries of southwest China affect the RMB cross-border circulation along with the advancement of the RMB cross-border circulation and the RMB regionalization?This research has found that such dollarization can significantly hamper the RMB cross-border circulation.With a consideration of the lagged effect of the RMB cross-border circulation,it reveals that the effect of dollarization has been reduced to 11.4%.Further research has also found that with the RMB cross-border circulation leading to the RMB appreciation to the currencies of the neighboring countries,Chinas has more direct investment in the neighboring countries which in turn have quicker economic and financial development.It concludes that dollar and RMB have some competition in these countries,and the further RMB cross-border circulation should find the key and correct points and approaches while making great efforts at breaking institutional barriers and unfavorable policies.