转型期中国农户生计响应的时空差异及对乡村振兴战略启示

The spatial-temporal difference of peasants’ livelihood response and enlightenments to rural revitalization strategy

农民增收是体现不同发展阶段农户生计适应性与自我可持续发展能力的关键指标。本文采用库兹涅茨曲线模型分析了1995-2015年中国农民增收与经济发展水平的耦合关系,发现了农户生计对经济发展的响应呈现显著的时空差异性特征。2009年成为中国农民人均纯收入增长率开始降低的拐点。中、西部地区由于发展相对落后,农民增收难问题早在2005年就已显现,东部地区在2012年开始出现农民增收难问题。城镇化发展、地区科技投入均有助于农民持续增收,而农民受教育程度普遍较低,制约了其提高生计水平和获取稳定收入的能力。应着力推进村镇化发展与乡村转型,提高农民受教育水平,为农民自我发展创造机会与平台,提升其生计水平与应对外界发展环境变化的能力。

As human society evolves from agrarian economy to industrial dominated urban economy and further to the knowledge economy, peasants’ livelihood has shifted from mainly undertaking agriculture to more diversified employments and income sources. However,peasants’ income growth depends on their capability in getting adapted to the human society evolutions. Peasants’ income growth is the key index to reflect peasants’ livelihood adaptability and self-development capability. The paper investigates the coupled relationship between peasants’ income growth and provincial economic development of China in the period 1995-2015. The panel data is used in the research. The results show that there is clear spatialtemporal differences of peasants’ livelihood response to the economic development. The year2009 is the turning point at which the growth rate of rural per capita net income in China starts to decrease. The turning point of rural per capita net income in central and western China appears in 2005 while eastern China finds the rural per capita net income decrease in 2012.This indicates that difficulties in peasants’ income growth have already appeared in China and the situation in central and western China emerged earlier than that in eastern China. This also implies that peasants’ capability fails to adapt to the changing external circumstances as China’s reform and opening-up goes deep, which provides both opportunities and challenges to peasants’ livelihood. In this process, the study shows that both urbanization development and scientific input contribute to peasants’ income growth while the peasants’ low educational level has restricted peasants’ livelihood and their capability in obtaining steady income. In 2017,China announced its rural revitalization strategy which aims to promote rural development in a comprehensive way. To achieve prosperous livelihood for the peasants is the core aspect of the strategy. In the aim of realizing China’s rural revitalization strategy, it is necessary to help peasants to achieve steady income growth in the long run. Thus, the paper suggests to promote ruralization and rural transformation which create a platform for peasants to generate steady income. Also it is important to improve peasants’ educational level so as to enhance their resilient capability against external changes and improve their livelihood.