中国绿色发展时空演变轨迹与影响机理研究

A comparative research of the spatial-temporal evolution track and influence mechanism of green development in China

绿色发展战略既是实现区域经济社会与资源环境耦合协调的重要内容,也是推进区域人地协调的重要路径。研究运用投影寻踪评价模型(PPM)以及基尼系数、变异系数、空间自相关和空间计量等方法分析中国30个省市区绿色发展时空演变轨迹与影响机理,得出以下结论:①构建涵盖"绿色增长-绿色福利-绿色财富"三个维度的绿色发展系统,三个维度的协同一致和均衡发展是绿色发展的本质特征和内在要求;②中国绿色发展指数呈逐年上升趋势,但增长速度较低,绿色发展虽然取得了显著成效,但问题与压力依然严峻。绿色增长和绿色福利指数均呈现增长趋势,年均增长率分别为5.77%、11.74%,绿色财富指数整体相对较低且增长缓慢,一定程度上反映了绿色财富指数增长的艰巨性和长期性;③绿色发展及其构成指数的区域差异呈逐渐缩小趋势,但差异程度依然较大,总体呈东部地区>东北地区>西部地区>中部地区的特征,绿色财富与绿色发展及其他构成指数空间分布错位,高高、低低空间集聚特征明显;④城镇化水平、产业结构、人口密度、科技创新、市场化、国际贸易是影响中国绿色发展的主要因素。研究从塑造生态文化理念、发展生态高效产业、提升资源环境承载能力和优化空间治理体系等方面提出对策建议,对中国生态文明建设和绿色发展推进具有一定的借鉴参考价值。

The green development strategy is not only an important part of realizing the coupling and coordination of regional economy-society and resource environment, but also an important path to promote regional man-earth coordination. British economist David Pierce’s book "Green Economy Blueprint" first introduced the concept of "green economy" in 1989.Since the financial crisis, green development has become an important consensus for improving economic competitiveness, coping with financial crisis and solving resource and environmental problems. Many developed countries and regions such as the European Union, the United States and Japan have begun to formulate a series of strategic plans centered on green energy technologies and green manufacturing industries. These plans actively promote the green new policy and open a new era of the green industrial revolution, with a view to achieving a green economy. The economy is recovering and is in a dominant position in the new round of global fierce competition. China faces more severe resource and environmental pressures than other countries. The special national conditions determine that China must implement sustainable development strategy. The"13 th Five-Year Plan"(2016-2020) also clearly stated that"green is a necessary precondition for sustainable development and an important manifestation of the people’s pursuit of a better life". After more than half a century of theoretical and practical evolution, green development is moving from one-dimensional to multi-dimensional, from simple to complex, and is a useful exploration of the sustainable development model. The study uses the projection pursuit evaluation model(PPM) and Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation, spatial autocorrelation and spatial measurement to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution trajectories and impact mechanisms of green development in 30 provincial areas of China, and draws the following conclusions:(1) Green development includes the three dimensions of "green growth-green welfare-green wealth". Synergistic and balanced development of the three dimensions is the essential feature and inherent requirement of green development;(2) China’s green development index is on the rise year by year, but the growth rate is low. Although the green development has achieved remarkable results, problems and pressures still exist. Both the green growth and the green welfare index showed an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 5.77% and 11.74% respectively. The overall green wealth index is relatively low and slowly grows. To a certain extent, it reflects that the growth of the green wealth index is an arduous and long-term task;(3) The regional differences in green development and its composition index are gradually shrinking, but regional differences are still large, featured by eastern region > northeast region > western region > central region.The spatial distribution of green wealth and green development and other branch index is misplaced, and the characteristics of high-high and low-low spatial agglomeration are obvious;(4) Urbanizational level, industrial structure, population density, technological innovation,marketization, and international trade are the main factors affecting China’s green development.The research proposes countermeasures from the aspects of ecological culture value, ecological economic construction, ecological environmental protection, resource and environmental carrying capacity and space governance system. It has certain reference value for China’s ecological civilization construction and green development.