多灾种概念辨析及灾害事故关系研究综述

Discrimination on concept of multi-hazard and review of research on relationship between disasters and accidents

随着人类社会的不断发展,各种各样的突发事件对人类的生产生活环境造成了重大影响,为了更好地应对突发事件,需要充分考虑和深入分析突发事件所带来的各种威胁。然而,目前对于灾害事故等多灾种之间的相互关系,仍存在描述众多,概念混淆的问题。在广泛调研的基础上,梳理、归纳和补充灾害事故间关系现有的概念和定义,以及相关名词的运用场景,将灾害事故等多灾种情形归纳为灾害事故相互增强、灾害事故互斥削弱、灾害事故互不影响3大类,Natech事件、灾害链、多米诺效应、人为激发灾害、灾害事故集等10小类,并详细阐述其含义,并进一步举出对应的案例;同时,在整理多灾种风险分析的研究现状基础上,对未来多灾种风险分析的研究提出展望。

With the continual development of human society,various emergencies have caused major disturbances to the production and living environment of human beings.In order to better cope with the emergencies,it is necessary to fully consider and deeply analyze various threats caused by the emergencies.However,at present,there are still many descriptions and confused concepts about the relationship of multi-hazard including the disasters and accidents.On the basis of extensive investigation,the existing concepts and definitions of the relationship between disasters and accidents were combed,summarized and supplemented,as well as the application scenarios of related terms.The multi-hazard situations were divided into 3 categories:mutual reinforcement of disasters and accidents,mutual exclusion or weakening of disasters and accidents and non-impact of disasters and accidents,as well as 10 sub-categories:Natech events,disaster chain,domino effect,man-induced disasters,disasters and accidents set,and so on.The implication was elaborated in detail,and the corresponding cases were given.Meanwhile,on the basis of reviewing the research status of multi-hazard risk analysis,the prospects for its future development were proposed.