中美贸易战对两国的宏观经济效应——基于两国DSGE模型的分析

The Macroeconomic Effects of Sino-American Trade War:Based on an Analysis of the Two Countries DSGE Model

构建一个包含异质性企业的两国动态随机一般均衡模型研究中美贸易战对两国产生的宏观经济效应。主要结论是:美国对中国发起贸易战,或者贸易战加码,若中国不反制,在中短期会导致中国产出和贸易盈余等宏观经济指标明显恶化,而美国相应指标明显改善;若中国基本对等反制,会在中短期里使中国产出和贸易盈余等指标得到一定提升,而美国相应指标呈现恶化;无论中国是否反制,中国居民的消费和福利水平都会出现一定的恶化,反制还会恶化更多一些;如果中国不反制,美国居民的消费和福利水平也会出现一定的恶化,而如果中国基本对等反制,则美国居民的消费和福利水平会更加恶化。中国应坚决反对贸易战,若美国执意发动和升级贸易战,中国应坚决予以对等反制以迫使美国停止贸易战。

This paper constructs a two-country dynamic stochast ic general equilibrium(DSGE)model with heterogeneous enterprises to study the macroeconomic effects of the Sino-American trade war on the two countries. The conclusions are mainly as follows: Faced with a trade war against China launched by the U.S., even the trade war being promoted by raising the tariff rates, if China does not take counter-measures, China’s output value, trade balance and other macroeconomic indicators will become significantly worsen in a short to medium term, while the corresponding indicators of the U.S. will be better. If China takes basically equal counter-measures, China’s output value,trade balance and other macroeconomic indicators will be improved to a certain extent in the short to medium term, while the corresponding indicators of the U.S. will be worse. Whether China takes counter-measures or not, the levels of consumption and welfare of China’s residents will become worsen to a certain extent;when counter-measures are taken, an even worse situation can be seen in China. If China does not take counter-measures, the level of consumption and welfare of the U.S.residents will also become worsen to some extent;while China takes basically equal counter-measures,the level of consumption and welfare of the U.S. residents will become still worsen. China should firmly oppose trade war, but if the U.S. persists in launching or upgrading trade wars, China should take counter-measures determinedly, so as to force the U.S. to stop trade wars.