短单化背景下货物贸易资本流动因素分析——以浙江省为例

Analysis of Capital Flow Factors in Goods Trade under the Background of Short-terming of Order: Take Zhejiang Province as an example

近年来订单短期化趋势越来越明显,影响货物贸易项下资本流动方式、流动速度。运用浙江省2012—2018年季度数据对影响货物贸易项下资本跨境流动因素进行实证研究。结果显示订单短期化背景下,订单指数与贸易信贷差额对货物贸易收支差额有显著滞后影响,存在长期稳定协整关系。为了防范金融风险,我国涉外经济应走高质量发展之路,提高防范外部冲击的内生能力,同时加强货物贸易跨境资金宏观审慎管理,维护金融体系稳健。

In recent years,the short-term trend of orders has become more and more obvious,affecting the mode and speed of capital flow under goods trade.This paper uses the quarterly data of Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2018 to make an empirical study on the factors affecting cross-border capital flows under goods trade.The results show that in the context of short-term orders,the order index and trade credit balance have a significant lagging effect on the balance of payments of goods trade,and there is a long-term stable co-integration relationship.In order to prevent financial risks caused by trade frictions,China’s foreign-related economy should take the road of high-quality development,improve the endogenous ability to guard against external shocks,and strengthen the macro-prudential management of cross-border funds in goods trade,so as to maintain the stability of the financial system.