“一带一路”倡议推进中的人民币货币篮绩效检验

“B&R” Initiative and Testing the Optimal Currency Baskets in China

2015年人民币汇率市场化形成机制改革将市场供求关系作为一篮子货币调整的重要影响因素。本文采用面板数据的固定效应模型评估我国货币篮政策的实际绩效,结论表明货币篮的缓冲作用显著。从人民币升贬值角度来看:当人民币贬值1%时,2005年到2015年出口增加了0.1038个百分点;当人民币升值1%时,相比2005年进口降低了约0.05个百分点。本文进一步分析了"一带一路"倡议的实施对人民币货币篮中币种种类及权重的影响,并采用双重差分模型(DID)进行了实证分析,结果表明"一带一路"倡议的提出使货币篮中"一带一路"沿线国家的币种权重发生了明显变化,其原因在于人民币货币篮中的国家是基于双边贸易额选取的,而"一带一路"倡议使我国与沿线国家的贸易规模不断扩大,从而影响到其币种权重的变化。

In 2015, the market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate was an important factor to adjust the market supply and demand relationship as a basket of currencies. Based on the measured volatile currency basket weights will minimize external accounts in our country as the government objective function, the optimal currency basket build formula by using the balance model development model, the simulation results show that the dollar, euro, yen currency basket weights of the highest in our country, namely the RMB currency basket weights is mainly composed of the three currencies, and the dollar weight have been accounted for the first and presents the increasing trend, but has remained between 40%-50%. Using fixed effect panel data model to evaluate the actual performance of our basket of monetary policy, the results indicate that the currency basket of cushion, rose from RMB devaluation perspective: when yuan depreciation of 1%, from 2005 to 2015, exports increased by 0.1038%;When the yuan rose 1%, it was about 0.05 percent lower than in 2005. Further, analysis of the implementation of the "area" initiative for the Renminbi currency basket currency type and weight of the influence of the double difference model(DID) is used for the empirical analysis, results show that the proposed "area" initiative has made all the way "area" in the currency basket along the country’s currency weights changed significantly, because the yuan currency basket in the country selection is based on the bilateral trade volume, and the "area" initiative to make our country along with the country’s trade scale expands unceasingly, thus will affect the change of its weight.