气候指标对油茶鲜果含油率的影响

Effects of climate indexes on oil content in Camellia oleifera fresh fruit

为给我国油茶主产区年度油茶鲜果含油率的预测和相关栽培技术措施的制定提供科学依据,从湖南省相关地市选取油茶样地40块,分别收集各样地2009—2017年的气象资料,采集124个油茶鲜果样本的含油率数据,运用统计分析、数值模拟等方法研究了湖南气候指标对油茶鲜果含油率的影响情况。结果表明:1)气候指标与油茶鲜果含油率的关系密切,气候指标影响油茶鲜果含油率的最重要时间段是油茶果实膨大高峰期,其次是油脂转化和积累高峰期;2)影响油茶鲜果含油率的关键气候指标分别是年极端最高气温、果实膨大高峰期间日最高气温≥37℃的天数、年日最高气温≥37℃的天数,这3个气候指标与鲜果含油率均呈负相关,当此3个气候指标值分别大于39.7℃、11 d、18 d时,油茶鲜果含油率低于5.7%的概率分别为85.2%、77.4%、74.4%;3)构建的关键气候指标与油茶鲜果含油率的数学模型,其拟合平均绝对误差为1.27%,具有很高的模拟精度。

Total 40 Camellia oleifera plots were selected from relevant cities in Hunan Province,and meteorological data from 2009 to 2017 and oil content data in 124 fresh fruit samples of C.oleifera were collected,in order to provide a scientific basis for prediction of annual oil content of fresh fruit in C.oleifera and development of relevant cultivation techniques at main C.oleifera production areas of China.Effects of climate indexes of Hunan province on oil content in C.oleifera fresh fruit were researched by using methods of statistical analysis and numerical simulation.The results showed that,1)Climate indexes were closely related to oil content in C.oleifera fresh fruit.The most important period for climate indexes affecting oil content in C.oleifera fresh fruit was the peak period of fruit expansion,followed by the peak period of oil conversion and accumulation.2)Key climate indexes affecting oil content in C.oleifera fresh fruit were annual extreme maximum temperature,day number with diurnal maximum temperature≥37℃during peak period of fruit expansion,and day number per year of diurnal maximum temperature≥37℃,which were all negative correlation with oil content in fresh fruit.Probability of oil content in C.oleifera fresh fruit less than 5.7%were respectively 85.2%,77.4%and 74.4%,when values of the three key climate indexes were respectively more than 39.7℃,11 days,and 18 days.3)Constructed mathematical model with the key climate indexes and oil content in C.oleifera fresh fruit had high simulation accuracy,and its fitting mean absolute error was 1.27%.