湖北省工业行业碳排放驱动因素分解——基于面板数据的实证分析

Decomposition of Carbon Emission Driving Factors of Industrial Sectors in Hubei Province: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

基于2000-2016年湖北省工业行业面板数据,采用对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)方法探究了工业从业人口规模、经济效率、行业结构、能源结构、能源效率五大因素对工业碳排放的影响。研究发现:(1)能源消费结构是工业整体碳排量增长的主要驱动因素。(2)高碳行业和中碳行业对促进工业碳排量增长具有明显正效应,低碳行业抑制工业碳排量增长的效果不明显。(3)经济效率和行业结构在不同碳排放水平的行业中对碳排量增长贡献值始终为负。根据研究结论,提出对应的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of industrial industry in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2016, the Log Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method was used to explore the effects of industrial employment population size, economic efficiency, industry structure, and energy structure and energy efficiency on industrial carbon emissions. The study found that:(1) Energy consumption structure is the main driving factor for the growth of industrial overall carbon emissions.(2) Both the highcarbon industry and the medium-carbon industry have a significant positive effect on promoting the growth of industrial carbon emissions. The effect of low-carbon industries on inhibiting the growth of industrial carbon emissions is not obvious.(3) In industries with different levels of carbon emissions, the contribution of economic efficiency and industry structure to carbon emissions growth is always negative. Based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations.